Royal Birkdale Is Starting The Open Baked Out, and That Changes the Whole Championship

Image: The Open / R&A

The first shot of The 154th Open belongs to Matthew Baldwin. The first real problem belongs to everybody else.

According to The Open’s official July 16, 2026 weather update, Royal Birkdale opens with light easterly winds in the morning, temperatures rising to 26C, and afternoon gusts around 21 mph. Add in Associated Press reporting published July 15 on how the real distance debate this week is about how far the ball runs on the ground, plus the official Open preview’s warning that the recent heat has turned the course from green to blonde, and opening day stops looking like a normal major start.

It starts looking like a survival test disguised as sunny weather.

This piece is based on The Open’s official July 16 weather page, its official tee-times page, and AP’s July 15, 2026 Birkdale conditions report, all checked on Thursday, July 16, 2026. No pretending I was roaming the property with a TrackMan, a yardage book, and a skin-care sponsorship.

For the lead-up first, read Joe Dean winning the last-chance qualifier, our take on Birkdale’s redesign, and why Scheffler’s Scottish Open missed cut made this week better.

Baldwin Gets the Honor, but the Weather Draw Matters Too

The R&A confirmed that Baldwin, a Royal Birkdale member who got through Final Qualifying, hit the opening tee shot at 6:35 a.m. BST alongside Thomas Detry and James Nicholas.

That is a cool local story. It is also a useful weather story.

The official forecast says the calmer portion of the day comes early. That means the first wave gets first crack at a course that is already firm, already warm, and not yet dealing with the stronger gusts expected later in the afternoon.

That matters even more once the marquee groups show up:

• Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tyrrell Hatton at 9:58 a.m. BST
• Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, and Jordan Spieth at 10:09 a.m. BST
• Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Fitzpatrick at 3:15 p.m. BST

If the course stays as jumpy as the official preview and AP both suggest, those later groups are not only facing bigger names and bigger galleries. They may also be dealing with the louder version of the golf course.

The Ground Game Is the Actual Headline

The cleanest thing AP surfaced on July 15 was that this week’s distance story is not just carry distance.

It is runout.

That tracks with what the Open’s official preview already flagged on July 13: the dry spell has left Birkdale fast enough that controlling the ball off the tee becomes at least as important as bombing it.

This is why the opening-day setup is more interesting than a basic “who starts hot?” preview.

Players are walking into a course where:

• the ball should chase on landing
• the afternoon wind is expected to build
• and the usual driver-first reflex can get stupid in a hurry

That combination is a real championship story. It also makes the existing Birkdale changes even meaner, especially after the course work we already broke down in our earlier opinion piece.

The Opening Tee Sheet Has Better Texture Because of It

A dry, fast Royal Birkdale gives the first round more variety than the normal major-script version.

Scheffler is defending. McIlroy is chasing another major after the Masters. Fleetwood gets the home-course energy. Spieth returns to the site of his 2017 win. And Baldwin starts the whole thing at his own club.

Those are all solid storylines.

But the useful part is that the course should force all of them into slightly different decisions than they would make on a softer, greener setup. That is especially true on a day when the weather is projected to shift from fairly manageable in the morning to noticeably windier later on.

What to Watch Right Away

I would pay attention to three things more than the early leaderboard:

• who backs off driver on the tighter holes
• who keeps landing approaches absurdly short and using the ground correctly
• and whether the afternoon wave starts sounding annoyed in the quotes

Because if the course is playing the way both the official preview and AP suggested, the first-round chatter should be less about raw scoring and more about how many shots felt like they needed an extra layer of restraint.

That is a very good sign for the rest of the week.

Bottom Line

Royal Birkdale opened The 154th Open on Thursday, July 16, 2026 with a setup that looks warm, dry, and increasingly windy as the day goes on.

The official forecast calls for light morning winds, afternoon gusts around 21 mph, and 26C temperatures, while AP’s July 15 report made clear the bigger distance issue is how much the ball will run once it lands.

That means opening day is not just about who hits the first good round.

It is about who solves the ground game first.